Majority of Industry Executives Believe OTT Can Be Supported As Its Own Direct-Payment Channel

A majority of industry executives believe that OTT is valuable enough to support direct payments from consumers. These are some of the findings of a new StreamingMedia.com survey of 758 media industry executives, which sought to uncover their views on the current and future state of OTT video from inside the trenches. 54% say a monthly subscription-based model is the best economic model for OTT delivery. However, looking down the road a few years, there will be more impetus for charging consumers on a pay-as-you-go (rental or purchase, sometimes referred to as “pay-per-view”) model for programming. Fewer executives see the monthly subscription approach as working over the long run—the percentage seeing this as the best revenue model slips from 54% today to 46% seeing it as feasible in five years.

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Instead, many executives predict the pay-as-you-go model for program delivery will catch hold over the next few years. Close to two-fifths, 38%, of respondents predict the pay-as-you-go model will prevail in five years, up from 29% that see it working today.

While in the minority, there is still a sizable segment of executives who believe in the advertising-supported model to monetize OTT programming, enabling faster distribution to a wider audience. About 40% support advertising-supported delivery, a number that will hold five years from now as well. There is less support for OTT as being delivered as an adjunct to traditional pay-TV packages. About 30% foresee OTT being funded as part of a value-added service as part of TV subscriptions, while only 7% feel it will work as an additional charge on top of TV subscriptions.

When looking across the three primary industry segments, there is general agreement that monthly subscriptions to OTT services are the dominant approach, and will remain so with a rise in pay-as-you-go plans as well. Pay-TV operators are more inclined than their counterparts to see more potential in bundling OTT services into pay-TV subscription plans.

Screen Shot 2013-09-02 at 9.27.31 PMUltimately, in the view of at least one respondent, pay-as-you-go is the most logical business model for OTT going forward. “If the costs are kept proportional, pay per view is the highest plateau of ‘democratic’ viewing,” the respondent says. “Viewers are choosing the program, and their money can go directly to the source—producers and delivery providers— eliminating the need for commercials. That means more revenues for content creators and delivery providers.” However, the respondent adds, there is still a place for commercials, which “can still find eyeballs if content is free to watch.” To be successful in this new hybrid market, providers need to “trade in high-cost delivery, which only reaches a top tier of income earners, for more viewers at lower cost.”

Full results from the report, entitled “OTT Video: Coming to a Paid Channel Near You” is available as a free download from the StreamingMedia.com website.

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Tuesday Webinar: Best Practices for Video Search and Discovery

Screen Shot 2013-08-19 at 2.10.36 PMAnalysts agree that video is growing, both in terms of volume and the need to expose it to search. In fact, Cisco’s 2013 VNI study predicts that globally, consumer Internet video traffic will be 69 percent of all consumer Internet traffic in 2017, up from 57 percent in 2012. But video as a format inherently lacks comprehensive metadata that would make it searchable in the same way text-based content is, thus rendering it an “invisible” asset even if the content is appropriate and meaningful. Applying rich metadata to video content is manual, time-consuming and costly — until now. On Tuesday August 27th, at 2pm ET, I’ll be moderating another StreamingMedia.com webinar, this time on the topic of, “Best Practices for Video Search and Discovery.”

During this session, you will learn about several best practices that can be applied to unlock the value in your video, and make it more discoverable for your target audiences, including:

  • How automatically creating a rich metadata “fingerprint” for video enables it to be discovered via search
  • How that metadata can be further exposed and cultivated to create experiences that drive users to related content, and increase video stream starts and time on site
  • How metadata can be used to drive contextual advertising experiences that offer additional revenue generating opportunities for you and your advertisers.

We’ll have a full Q&A session in which your questions will be answered and as always, all StreamingMedia.com webinars are free. So register here and save the date for this instructional webinar.

CDN Provider Highwinds Closes $205M In Debt Financing

This morning, content delivery provider Highwinds announced they have closed $205M in a debt financing deal with Cerberus Business Finance and Goldman Sachs BDC, Inc. along with a follow-on investment from General Catalyst Partners. Highwinds plans to use some of the money to buyout older investors, but won’t say how much of the $205M will be left once that’s done. The company raised $100M in financing between 2006-2010, so one has to imagine at least half of the new debt financing will go directly to Highwinds expansion.

Highwinds has been in the industry since 2002 and use to be in the large volume, low price, video delivery business but exited that market a few year’s back to focus on the gaming, advertising and software delivery markets. The company plans to use the money to expand their network in China and Russia and further expand their presence in Latin America. The company has egress capacity in excess of 4Tbps and plans to add to that as well. Highwinds isn’t disclosing revenue numbers, but I expect the company will do about $100M this year. One thing Highwinds is open about is that they are profitable, with the business generating a lot of positive cash flow each month. The majority of Highwinds business is CDN related, HTTP and NNTP delivery, with only a small portion coming from transit and co-location products and services. The company has done a good job of signing up PC gaming customers including Valve, GameFly, Wargaming.net, Hawken, World of Tanks, Bigpoint and others.

Why AOL Paid Too Much For Adap.tv, Inside The Numbers No One Else Is Mentioning

This morning AOL announced it would buy ad technology platform provider Adap.tv for $405M in cash and stock. The strange part is that for all the news outlets that covered the deal, more than 86 by my count, none of the more than two dozen articles I have read even mentions what Adap.tv’s revenues are. I don’t see anyone asking what multiple AOL paid for the company or an article that gives any kind of breakdown on the valuation AOL put on Adap.tv’s business.

I’ve read articles on Ad Age, Ad Week, USA Today, Forbes, Business Insider, New York Times, CNET, Bloomberg, Tech Crunch, GigaOm, WSJ, Venture Beat, PC Magazine and not a single one mentions anything pertaining to Adap.tv’s revenue. As a whole, the media did a really bad job reporting this deal and it seems everyone simply rushed to get something up, but no one told any kind of real story. There is also no real mention in the articles I read on what Adap.tv does, what makes it different from an ad “network” or ad “exchange” and very little details on what Adap.Ttv’s growth has been like over the past seven years. It’s another example of why the current blog model, for most blogs, is wrong when all they are focused on is getting up as many posts as possible that are 700 words or less.

Adap.tv has been around about seven years now and last year, did under $100M in revenue. No one at the company wants to give an exact number, but from multiple sources I have spoken to they put the number at about $85M. Some at the company have been quietly telling people since the beginning of the year that they are on a run rate of “under $140M in revenue for 2013”, but realistically, I expect 2013 revenue to be more in the $120M range. Based on that 2013 projected number, AOL paid 3.5x revenue for Adap.tv. Keep in mind that AOL did say that Adap.tv has “grown global revenue over 100% per year in each of the last three years”, so whenever a company grows revenue by 100%, for many years in a row, you know the base number they are working off of is small. The one post I did read that mentioned revenue numbers (WSJ), said AOL paid 5x Adap.tv’s 2012 revenue, but these deals are done on the projected run rate of revenue for this year, not what they did last year.

Some might suggest that Adap.tv used the recent IPO of Tremor Video, which has a market cap of just over $400M as a way to measure their value, but Tremor Video had raised 2x more cash than Adap.tv ($116M vs. $50M), yet their revenues weren’t 2x higher. Tremor Video did $105.2M in 2012 revenue and wasn’t profitable. Adap.tv wasn’t profitable in 2012 either, but with the scale and resources they will now get thanks to the AOL platform, they probably could be.

I’m sure this is a long-term play for AOL and they are looking at what the future of online video advertising will grow into, but keep in mind that every projection made for this segment of the industry has historically been wrong. Four years ago I wrote a blog post entitled “What’s The Size The Online Video Advertising Market? All Depends On Who You Ask“, and of the eight sources I listed who gave out projections for the next three years, none of them look right. People have been making a lot of predictions about the size and growth of the online video ad market but the truth is, the market has simply not grown as fast as some want to imply. When the largest vendors in any space are doing $100M in revenue (Tremor Video, Adap.tv) the market is not as big as many want to suggest. And when you go to CNN or ESPN or any of the other major web portals and they deliver you the same video pre-roll ad literally ten times in a row, it’s clear there are plenty of problems with the market. Video ad targeting does not truly exist. Video CPM rates have been stagnant for years. All the vendors will say otherwise, but we all see what kinds of video ads we get.

While you may not think it from what I have written so far, I actually like this acquisition by AOL. Adap.tv was doing a good job in the market, they have a smart executive team and combined with the video plans that Ran Harnevo is in charge of executing at AOL, Adap.tv is fills a void AOL was missing. But AOL overpaid and based on how AOL’s CEO is talking about the deal, realistic expectations aren’t being set. During an interview on CNBC, AOL’s CEO was talking about the size of TV advertising being $240B and that’s going to move online over the next decade. What he does not say is what percentage of that AOL predicts will move online and over what time. He mentions Adap.tv is the number one technology in this space, yet they don’t even capture 3% of the programmatic ad buying market, which eMarketer estimates will be more than $3.36B this year. Also, while I see others using the eMarketer estimates, note that they say that number is for “all digital display spending”, not just video. So video is a much smaller fraction of the overall $3.36B number.

I’m sure many will say that this is a long term bet for AOL and I get that. But if you look at the estimates analysts gave out ten years ago, on what the video advertising market will be in 2013, none of them were even close, in some cases off by tens of billions. So AOL has a long way to go before they can show they got $405M in value from this deal. I hope they get it, but it’s going to be many, many years before they can show justification for paying the price they did.

Streaming Media West Conference Program Published: Speaker Placement Starts Today

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We’ve got a great lineup of content planned for the 2013 Streaming Media West conference (nov. 19-20), and have moved the event to a beautiful new venue this year, located in Huntington Beach. Below are all of the topics that will be covered at the show and we’ll have a combination of “how-to” instructional sessions, “presentations” by stand alone speakers and “round-table” panels that consist of a moderator and four panelists.

imagesIf you want to speak, download the full agenda and follow the instructions. Here’s the list of what content will be featured at the show and as you can see, we’re covering a lot of really great subjects:

  • Instagram vs. Vine: Hands On With Social Video Apps
  • Online Distribution and Monetization Strategies for the TV Industry
  • Understanding the Significance of HEVC/H.265
  • LTE and The Mobile Video Business Opportunity
  • How-To: Evaluating Your H.264 Encoder
  • YouTube Strategy for Brands
  • How To: Using Google Glass to Capture and Publish Videos
  • Connected Device Support: Creating OTT Apps
  • The State of Over-The-Top Video and TV Everywhere Rollouts
  • MPEG-DASH: Commercial Deployments and Outlook Towards HEVC and 4K
  • Requirements For TV Everywhere Enablement
  • How To: Choosing an Enterprise-Class Video Encoder
  • Video Capture and Delivery For Students in Higher Education
  • Building An Open Source DASH-AVC/264 Player
  • OTT Services and Their Effect On The Bundled TV Model
  • How To: Making the HTML5 Video Element Interactive
  • The Future of Digital Entertainment in a Multiscreen World
  • Using Cloud-Based Video Services For The Enterprise
  • Cutting Through The Hype Of HEVC
  • How To: Using YouTube’s Platform For Live Events
  • Best Practices For Implementing Accessible Video Captioning
  • Matching Up Streaming Video Metrics with Traditional TV Ad Buys
  • Re-Inventing Education With Video
  • Best Practices For Live Streaming
  • The Business of TV Everywhere
  • How To: Picking and Choosing A Video Management Solution
  • How-To: Choosing a Cloud Encoder
  • Truths, Half-Truths and Outright Myths About Live TV and Streaming Consumption
  • The Keys To HEVC’s Successful Deployment and Growth
  • How The BBC Built A Resilient Broadcast Grade System In The Cloud
  • Best Practices For Building An Enterprise Video Platform
  • Overcoming The Challenge Of Getting Live Video To Android Devices

I can’t reinforce enough how fast spots will go. So if you want to speak, don’t wait!

Latest ISP Data Shows Transparent Caching Increasing QoE Inside Carrier Networks

This morning transparent caching provide Qwilt announced they have raised $16M in a Series C round, now having raised a total of $40M to date. The funding, led by Bessemer Venture Partners, includes contributions from its current investors, Accel Partners, Redpoint Ventures and Marker LLC., some of the original VC’s that invested in Facebook and Netflix. For those not familiar with transparent caching technology, (a market I expect to grow to $350M By 2016) these platforms make intelligent decisions about which content can and should be cached inside carrier, MSO and mobile operator networks. By deploying intelligent caches strategically throughout their networks, operators can cache and deliver popular content (think Netflix and YouTube) close to subscribers and reduce the amount of transit traffic across their networks.

Qwilt started developing their technology in 2009 and in 2011, entered the market in beta. Since then, the company continues to win business and gain momentum in the market and over the coming months, expects to be able to publicly announce some major deployments. Qwilt has a lot of interesting data directly from customers and recently shared with me some charts that show the QoE improvement that is introduced when deploying Qwilt in carrier networks. The comparisons below shows the average video bitrate which is a key parameter in measuring QoE (and also the parameter used by Netflix in their ISP rankings) and how Qwilt allows for higher quality to be delivered, from inside a carrier’s network. In all cases the Qwilt systems were delivering roughly 50% of video traffic in the network.

Netflix (US customer) – 52% improvement – 3.2 Mbps OnNet (delivered by Qwilt) vs. 2.1 OffNet (delivered by Netflix or CDN)

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YouTube (US customer) – 62% improvement – 4.7 Mbps (by Qwilt) vs. 2.9 (by YouTube)

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YouTube (International customer) – 209% improvement – 1.1 Mbps (by Qwilt) vs. 526.4Kbps (by YouTube)

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Nearly every major telco, MSO, and mobile operator is actively looking at or deploying some kind of transparent caching technology today. It is a required element in their network to control OTT video content consumption and to provide the best possible end-to-end user experience. It is a unique technology that simultaneously benefits a content owner, a network operator, and, most importantly, a broadband or wireless subscriber.

Now a grown-up technology, transparent caching is the most cost-effective medium today for service providers to deliver OTT video with the kind of QoS demanded by consumers. Once considered a cost-savings initiative, it is now viewed as an investment, providing demonstrable return on investment by enabling service providers to better monetize their video services, like shown above in the QoS improvements.

At my Content Delivery Summit event this past May, Qwilt presented best practices for network insertion of transparent caching solutions and went through pre-deployment analysis and sizing strategies, demonstrating Qwilt’s platform video analytics capabilities. They also provided some guidelines in sizing and comparing TPC solutions and what the gotchas are that operators should look for. You can check out a video of their presentation here. And for more details on how transparent caching technology works, its role in the CDN market and market sizing projections, visit www.transparentcaching.com, where all my posts on this topic are located.

CDN Provider EdgeCast Raises $54M: What It Means For The Industry

I’ve been out for a while with a cold, so I’m late in writing up the recent news from CDN provider EdgeCast, which on July 18th, announced a big fourth round of funding for the company, totaling $54M. But don’t let my tardiness take away from how big of a deal this is for EdgeCast, and the impact on the CDN industry.

This latest round of funding is a testament to the success EdgeCast has shown in the market over the last five years, growing their business to a run rate of $100M in 2013, with only $20M in previous funding. At a time when many services in the CDN market are facing pressure on the pricing and competitive front, EdgeCast has managed to grow quickly, with products and services that have better than average margins, because of their unique strategy. From day one, EdgeCast stayed away from contracts where all the customer wanted was the lowest price. They walked away from a lot of potential bad business deals and didn’t try to win any portion of traffic from companies like Netflix, which was a smart move on their part, since many CDNs later regretted taking on those type of deals, learning they could not make money on them. EdgeCast will compete for high volume lower margin deals in video and software delivery, but will only do profitable deals.

EdgeCast also saw a need in the market, year’s before anyone else, around licensed and managed CDN and while it accounts for less than 25% of their revenue today, it allowed them to diversify their portfolio and get revenue from high-margin services. The company now competes in the market for traditional CDN services, licensed/managed CDN, application acceleration services and recently launched a dedicated PCI network for retailers. EdgeCast has quickly grown their product portfolio to include all the major services a CDN needs to have in the market to be able to truly compete.

EdgeCast came to the market in 2007 at a time when many other CDNs were in business and has been able to survive while most of the others have gone under. (i.e. Panther Express, BitGravity, Vusion, Grid Networks). EdgeCast joins the ranks of Akamai, Limelight, Level 3 and Amazon as one of the five remaining, large-scale CDNs in the market, offering delivery services for video and other forms of content. The company says they carry more than 5% of all worldwide Internet traffic, has 4Tbps of egress capacity deployed, and at their current rate of growth, is on a run rate of over $140M by the end of 2014. The company has been profitable since Q3 of 2009 and has grown to 275 employees, all on only $20M in funding, before this latest round. That’s quite an achievement, considering that in 2009, we saw video CDN pricing decline by an average of 45%, yet EdgeCast was still able to grow.

To highlight just how well EdgeCast has done to date, with little funding, all you have to do is look at Limelight Networks numbers for comparison. Limelight, which to date has raised more than $400M, is on a run rate of about $200M in revenue for this year. If EdgeCast does in fact end the year with $100M in revenue, they will have raised about 1/6 of the money Limelight has raised, yet is already at half of Limelight’s revenue. At a time when other CDNs are struggling to grow their CDN business by double digits, and keep their margins on CDN services high, EdgeCast has managed to do both. The company has their work cut out for them moving forward because it’s much harder to grow your revenue as you get larger and have to scale out every facet of your business, but they now have the money to do it.

Unlike a lot of the later big rounds of funding that took place at Limelight Networks and Highwinds, where some cashed out, 100% of EdgeCast’s management is staying put and all of the money EdgeCast just raised will go into the company’s expansion. Some CDNs like Limelight raised a ton of money pre-ipo and then cashed out their management team, got rid of a bunch of key founders including the CEO, and then brought in a team of outsiders who didn’t have the same passion and domain expertise to drive the business forward – and those were the guys who took it public. While they had some of the founding team still there, Limelight wasn’t the same after that, a mistake EdgeCast isn’t going to make.

EdgeCast plans to use the money to grow their network, add POPs into markets they don’t service today and augment capacity in their existing POPs to handle even more traffic. They also plan to expand their sales force and put more feet on the street in different geographies as to date, EdgeCast has been selling mostly over the phone. But the bigger customers need higher touch, something EdgeCast will be in a better position to support and will use the money to enhance some of their new products such as Transact (PCI/e-commerce network) and new DNS and security offerings rolling out later this year.

EdgeCast wants to remain focused. They aren’t getting into the transcoding business, becoming an OVP, trying to be a cloud hosting company or selling any kind of network services like transit. EdgeCast has done well thanks to their focus, and with a lot of new capital in the bank, they don’t plan to lose that focus anytime soon.

Some of EdgeCast’s customers include: Twitter, Hulu, WordPress, Mercedes-Benz, JetBlue, Kellogg’s, Yahoo!, Etsy, EMI, Campbells, Overstock, Bluefly, Garmin, Pinterest and Atari.