If you call yourself “highly motivated and results-driven” on LinkedIn, you’re making a mistake. So, for those looking for help getting a job or moving up in the streaming media industry, on Thursday, January 18, at 7 pm ET, I’m hosting a live Zoom  (password is my last name), taking questions and giving out some best practices on job search and placement, LinkedIn profiles and resumes.

I see many resumes, and I help companies (for free) find great potential employees. Over the years, I’ve helped Disney, NBC Sports, Akamai, Comcast, Amazon, Oracle, Edgio, AWS, Microsoft, and dozens of others connect with the right individuals. Those in the industry who can speak intelligently and intelligibly on the value they bring to a company, day one.

With all the layoffs in the streaming industry, plus those looking for new jobs, you have to be able to show your value to a potential employer, and it starts with your LinkedIn profile. Many could be better. I can complain about them or do something to help others, which is the point of live Zoom. I did one of these a few years back with over 100 attendees.

I’ll explain why you must stand out and how to do it. People say they are “detail-oriented,” yet they took no time to remove the default grey background image from LinkedIn. I’ve offered free advice to anyone in the streaming industry on advancing their careers – at no charge – and will continue to do so. But before you talk to anyone, you must set yourself up for success.

Phrases like “top-performing” mean nothing. Top compared to whom? Many people call themselves “coach and mentor” without defining their meaning. What are you coaching others on? If you are looking for an account management job, coaching others in the sales organization is not part of that job unless you are at a specific level. Saying you have “Products and Services Expertise” but not defining what products or services you work with in the streaming video stack isn’t helpful.

The bottom line is that far too many LinkedIn profiles are generic in wording, have broken links and text that is improperly formatted, and many have never commented on or reposted a single article from their industry. You have to show you know market drivers and restraints and are what I call “a player in the game.”

You can join the Zoom meeting anonymously if you like, and I’ll be taking questions via chat only and answering them live on video. Below is the Zoom link, and the password is my last name. So grab a drink 🍺 and join others. This is free and open to everyone so that you can invite others. If attendees find it useful, I’ll do the Zoom regularly.

Zoom link: https://bit.ly/47vsffQ – Password: my last name

With all the OTT price increases in 2023 and the recent launch of new AVOD tiers, the ARPU (Average Revenue Per User) metric is becoming one of the most critical data points that OTT services and Wall Street are closely tracking. The number of net new subscribers added each quarter is still an important metric, but OTT services can have fewer subs and more revenue as long as they increase how much money they are getting from subscribers each month. More importantly, with many streaming services projecting to reach profitability this year, a higher ARPU can help them achieve that faster, even with fewer subs.

Comparing ARPU data from previous years to today is difficult since streaming services have raised pricing more frequently than before, and many have also rolled out services internationally with different pricing and, in some cases, bundles that offer promotional pricing. In addition, streaming services make less per wholesale subscriber; for instance, what Verizon pays Netflix per subscriber in the Verizon bundle, and higher or lower advertising revenue can also skew the numbers, either way, each quarter. Services that offer a discount when you pay for a year in advance would also see their ARPU numbers skewed based on how many users sign up for the 12-month plan.

Some are unaware that streaming services get paid less monthly for wholesale subscribers. Still, Disney, for instance, includes this language in their financials, saying, “Wholesale arrangements have a lower average monthly revenue per paid subscriber than subscribers that we acquire directly or through third-party platforms.”

Adding to the complexity are new advertising-supported plans that can initially lower ARPU but have the potential to make up the difference, or even more revenue, over time. Almost no OTT service breaks out their advertising revenue from their overall SVOD ARPU, with Fubo being the lone exception.

The chart includes a breakdown of ARPU for streaming services based on publicly available data from earnings, interviews, and SEC filings. All numbers are from calendar Q3 2023 or the last time ARPU was given out, which is noted. The growth or decline number excludes the year-over-year effect of foreign exchange rate movements. Just as Netflix reports it, the numbers assume foreign exchange rates remained constant with foreign exchange rates from each prior-year period’s corresponding months.

These streaming services were left off the chart due to their previous ARPU data being old:

• iQiyi: China ARPU, $2.17, SVOD and AVOD combined (Up 12%)
• Eros Now: India ARPU, Premium subscriber, SVOD and AVOD combined, “in the range of $1.20 to $1.30”, per regulatory filing (Last reported Q4 2022)
• Lionsgate Play: India ARPU, $0.50, SVOD and AVOD combined (Last reported Dec 2022)
• Starz: Domestic ARPU, “around $6”, SVOD (Last reported Q3 2022)

No ARPU data has been released for services including AMC+, Acorn TV, Amazon Prime Video, Apple TV+, CuriosityStream, DAZN, Epix, Freevee, MotorTrend TV, NFL+, Sling TV, Tubi, YouTube TV, Tubi, Pluto TV, BritBox, and many others.

Podcast episode 79 is live. This week, I reviewed Peacock’s exclusive NFL game stream with some users having a poor quality video experience and detailed why I think Peacock’s strategy failed with their ad-free fourth quarter. I also break down the viewership numbers reported by NBC Sports and highlight how sports is a costly and unproven part of Peacock’s subscriber acquisition strategy, with no ability to scale sports content globally.

I discuss, with numbers, why the rumors of Warner Bros. Discovery buying Paramount would not make sense from a financial standpoint since the deal would likely be a stock-for-stock deal, with the combined companies having about $60 billion in debt. I also detail how, from a regulatory standpoint, it would involve merging two of the five remaining major movie studios and two major television studios, creating a very high concentration of linear network ownership, including a significant consolidation of major sports rights.

Finally, I highlight what changes I would like to see in the streaming media industry in 2024, including better innovation in the pricing and packaging of streaming content and more professionalism from those within the industry.

Numbers matter, especially financials. Some in the media are reporting that Paramount doesn’t have enough cash and will go bankrupt next year, neglecting to mention the cash Paramount will get from the Simon & Schuster sale and Paramount’s revolving line of credit. Could Paramount’s balance sheet be a lot better? Absolutely. They have a total of $15 billion of net debt. But they are not on the “verge” of going bankrupt. These are the facts:

• Paramount had $1.8 billion of cash as of September 30
• For the period ending Sept. 30, Paramount reported a profit of $295 million, up from $231 million, a year earlier
• Paramount generated $377 million in free cash flow during the third quarter and anticipates strong free cash flow in the fourth quarter as the strike continues to limit the production of content
• In Q4 the company will receive $3 billion (on a pro forma basis) from the sale of Simon & Schuster and expects the transaction to yield approximately $1.3 billion in net proceeds
• Paramount’s CFO said he expects the combination of integrating Showtime into Parammount+ to exceed the previously forecasted $700 million of future expense savings
• The company is expected to see the full ARPU benefit of the recent price increase in the fourth quarter
• During the first quarter of 2023, the company amended and extended its $3.5 billion revolving credit facility, which now matures in January 2027
• In 2024, the company faces a ~$555M debt maturity (total of $15 billion of net debt)

S&P Global analyst Naveen Sarma said Paramount doesn’t have “the cash on the balance sheet to be able to make that payment,” about the $2 billion that Paramount owes the NFL for media rights in 2024. They will have the cash in 2024 when needed and the payment for the NFL is spaced out over multiple payments during the year, it is not one lump sum. There are rumors that the company has discussed laying off more than 1,000 workers early next year, which would also save the company additional money.

It’s safe to say that Paramount will get sold. That’s going to happen at some point. Maybe not all to one buyer and it would make sense for the assets to be broken up. Paramount won’t be a stand-alone company in the next few years. But if you are a buyer there is no reason to buy it now and there is no urgency for the buyer. Any sale would face a long regulatory review unless Paramount’s financials truly get distressed at which point the regulatory rules are relaxed and a deal could go through faster. To suggest the company will go bankrupt next year is to ignore the numbers and facts around their financials.

There are some interesting things taking place with their bonds which have seen higher prices and strong volume in recent weeks, amid reports that Chairwoman Shari Redstone is in talks on selling a controlling stake in the company. Holders of the bonds could make out well if there’s a change of control and the credit is downgraded, thanks to a special provision in their terms.

It’s incredible to think it’s been ten years since Netflix and Comcast signed their interconnect deal, which is due to expire in 2024. This took place at the height of net neutrality and only a year after the deal, the FCC announced the net neutrality order in an effort to prevent the blocking or prioritization of any internet traffic. But just two years later, the FCC voted to do away with the previous order.

Fast forward ten years and the media and telco industries have changed dramatically. Netflix and Comcast’s businesses have both seen seismic changes with Netflix estimating at least $6.5 billion in free cash flow this year, growing to nearly 250 million global subscribers (247.2 million) and having invested over $1 billion in their Open Connect program.

Comcast now owns NBUC (full ownership happened a year before their deal with Netflix), owns and operates Peacock, has sold their 33% stake in Hulu to Disney, and is aggressively building out its 5G network for its Xfinity Mobile service. Their Xfinity X1 platform became a successful aggregation point for a lot of streaming apps even as, like all pay TV providers, Comcast has seen millions of consumers cut the cord.

Since the original deal, the companies expanded their relationship with Netflix launching on Comcast’s X1 platform in 2016, and in 2018, Comcast included a Netflix subscription for new and existing Xfinity packages. Working together, Comcast and Netflix have done a great job of delivering video to consumers and have a great working relationship.

The companies are currently in discussions about a new deal and I expect both sides to be able to come to an agreement without any public spat. The companies work well with one another and they have a very clear understanding of how to deliver a great quality Netflix experience over Comcast’s last mile. I do think some network changes could happen at Comcast internally, especially tied to CTS, but that would simply be about Comcast’s internal network strategy which is always evolving.

I don’t expect any public drama when it comes to a new agreement between the two companies and I would expect a new deal to be done without much fanfare, as it should be.

Thanks to Carlo De Marchis for having me on his latest video interview series talking about the current business economics of the streaming media industry, AI, personalization and the need to focus on long-term sustainability over quarterly fluctuations. The key takeaway is that streaming necessitates reimagination across the value chain – from business models to technical architecture. Quick fixes only defer this underlying work and he recaps some of the interview on his LinkedIn post here.

Thanks to Seeking Alpha for having me on their Investing Experts Podcast discussing the “Reality Vs. Fantasy” in the streaming media industry. I broke down key earnings data, what some OTT platforms are doing right and where challenges are in the industry. We talked live sports streaming, subscriber losses and gains across Disney, Paramount, Warner Bros. Discovery and the different business models across many OTT platforms. A transcript of the podcast is also available on their website.